Deposit: $500
Waitlist position: #1
Order placed: Jul 27, 2021
Order delivered: Feb 12, 2022
Difference: 200 days
@dmonkey:
Deposit: $500
Waitlist position: #13
Difference: 6 months 17 days (~190 days)
There's a pretty big difference between those two. That means that for dmonkey, they delivered (EDIT) up to 13-14 bikes in the same time period that the dealership I placed my deposit at received 2. Similar to this, my local dealership in Seattle has received 2 bikes in approximately the same time period. I called the place I got mine from because they'd just received a shipment that weekend and weren't fast enough to clear it off the website, so it was a reliable 200 days between shipments at that specific dealership.
These bikes appear in crates of 2 bikes IIRC, so being in position 2-3 means you're either next or you're the shipment after. If you are not cash strapped, I very much encourage searching around in the meantime, etc. and trying to find one, particularly in OK and KS where they have been popping up on Motohunt fairly reliably. (EDIT: for reference, today is 523 days since you put your deposit down)
I also know that
@Tumbleweedtattooer was waitlisted at position #3 when I was in position #1. If we're going with cadence for dealer distribution being approximately consistent, #3 bike will be delivered on or before August 31, 2022. Hey Siri, remind me to check back with Tumbleweedtattooer on August 31.